

Bundesliga
•Round 4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Finished
2 : 0
(HT 1 - 0)
20th Sept 2026, 09:30

RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win


Author
Fact checker Daniela Stoeva
Leverkusen remain the home-win lean after scoring eight times in three league games, although Leipzig's nine goals make this far from straightforward.
The published lean remains Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win, with 3-1 still my correct-score call. Both sides arrive with plenty of attacking output: Leverkusen have eight goals through three league matches, while Leipzig have nine. Starter information is supplied, but its team mapping is not reliable enough to reshape the view. The goal prices have also edged shorter, so there is plenty to unpack.
I'm sticking with the original Leverkusen win lean. Their league record now reads one win, one draw and one loss, but the attacking return is still strong at eight goals in three matches. The 4-0 home win over Union Berlin remains the clearest recent result in the supplied form, while the 2-2 draw at Augsburg showed they can still create enough to recover when the game gets loose.
Leipzig are the obvious reason not to overstate the home case. They sit on six points from three matches and have scored nine times, most recently putting five past Hamburger SV. That gives the away side a live route into the game, particularly after Leverkusen conceded twice at Augsburg. The available starter list contains two full sets of players, but all are marked with an unknown team assignment. It cannot be used safely for player-specific matchup claims, and there is no confirmed absence that warrants changing the published prediction.
The 1X2 market is broadly stable rather than sending a strong new signal: Leverkusen have moved from 1.95 to 1.97, a marginal drift. The goals markets have tightened a little more, with BTTS Yes from 1.36 to 1.33 and Over 2.5 from 1.37 to 1.30. That modest support fits the supplied recent scores, but it does not make the home result a certainty. For me, Leverkusen remain the likelier winners, with Leipzig capable of contributing to a 3-1 type of game.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3 : 1
RB Leipzig




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Goals Scored
2.5
Goals Conceded
1.3
Goals difference
+5
Avg. goals per match
3.8
FT, 12 Sept 2026
2
2
FT, 5 Sept 2026
4
0
FT, 29 Aug 2026
3
2
FT, 16 May 2026
1
1
FT, 9 May 2026
3
1
Based on recent previews and team reports.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Confirmed: 3-4-2-1
🧤Goalkeeper:
Mark Flekken
🛡️Back line:
Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba, Facundo Medina
⚙️ Midfield:
Moussa Diaby, Equi Fernández, Aleix García, Miguel Gutiérrez
⚡ Attack:
Ibrahim Maza, Afonso Moreira, Patrik Schick

RB Leipzig
Confirmed: 4-2-3-1
🧤Goalkeeper:
Maarten Vandevoordt
🛡️Back line:
Ridle Baku, Willi Orbán, Maxime Estève, David Raum
⚙️ Midfield:
Ezechiel Banzuzi, Neil El Aynaoui, Brajan Gruda, Christopher Nkunku, Antonio Nusa
⚡ Attack:
Rômulo







👉
Leverkusen's home price has moved only slightly from 1.95 to 1.97, so the match-result market is broadly stable rather than rejecting the original lean.
👉
BTTS Yes has shortened from 1.36 to 1.33, indicating a small increase in market support for both sides finding the net.
👉
Over 2.5 goals has shortened from 1.37 to 1.30, reinforcing the expectation of goals without representing a dramatic late move.