Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid Best Betting Tips, Predictions & Odds

Author

Janne Kouva

Fact checker Daniela Stoeva

05 Oct 2026

Atlético's four wins in five and 12 goals in that sequence make the away side the most credible 1X2 selection.

Prediction

Atlético Madrid are rightly favoured for the trip to Mendizorroza, with 1.87 reflecting a side that has won four of its last five league matches. Alavés sit sixth after seven games and have been productive at home, so I expect resistance rather than a routine away win. My match prediction is a narrow 2-1 Atlético victory. The prices and recent results make this one worth unpacking.

Atlético at 1.87 implies a raw probability of roughly 53.5%, compared with about 26.7% for the draw at 3.74 and 23.8% for an Alavés win at 4.20. That is a firm away lean, but not a price that removes the home side from the equation. I think the market is correctly identifying Atlético as the more likely winner after four victories in five, including wins over Real Madrid, Osasuna, Real Sociedad and Sevilla. They scored 12 goals in that run, which is the clearest supplied indicator behind the away selection.

Alavés deserve respect, though. Their 11 points from seven matches put them sixth, with 11 scored and only six conceded. Recent home wins over Osasuna and Villarreal show a genuine route to making this difficult, while the 5-2 result against Osasuna also supports the case for them finding a goal. Their last five have been more uneven than Atlético's, bringing two wins, two defeats and a draw, but this is not a straightforward mismatch.

I land on Atlético because their recent winning sequence is more compelling than Alavés' mixed form, while the 1.87 price is consistent with that edge. I would keep confidence at medium rather than push it higher: Atlético did lose 3-0 at Athletic Club in their latest five, and Alavés have already produced notable home results. The 1-2 lean points naturally toward both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, rather than expecting a controlled away clean sheet.

Atlético Madrid have the stronger recent results and are the likelier winners, though Alavés have shown enough at home to keep this competitive.

Key reasons

Atlético Madrid have won four of their last five La Liga matches, scoring 12 goals across that run.
Alavés have taken 11 points from seven matches and have conceded only six league goals so far.
The 1X2 market makes Atlético Madrid the clear favourite at a best price of 1.87.

Risk factors

Alavés beat Osasuna 5-2 and Villarreal 1-0 in two of their last three home matches.
Atlético Madrid's recent away results include a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Club.

Deportivo Alavés

1 : 2

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid to win

Both teams to score: Yes

Over 2.5 Goals

Do you agree with my prediction?

AI Consensus Prediction

This module compares match predictions from leading AI models using the same advanced prompt. Each model analyzes team form, statistics, injuries, head-to-head records, and other key factors before generating a prediction and scoreline. The comparison highlights where models agree or differ.