

La Liga
•Round 1

Espanyol
13:00
16th Aug 2026

Levante
Espanyol to win


Author
Fact checker Daniela Stoeva
Espanyol's home momentum and Levante's defensive fragility on the road make the hosts worth backing at 2.11.
Espanyol open their La Liga campaign at home to Levante, priced at 2.11 for the home win, 3.3 for the draw, and 4.0 for the visitors. That implies roughly 47% for Espanyol before margin, 30% for the draw, and 25% for Levante. The market's leaning toward the hosts, and the tail-end form from last season supports it, with Espanyol winning two of their last three at the RCDE Stadium. Worth examining whether that price fully accounts for Levante's ability to score on the road, even in defeats.
Espanyol at 2.11 implies roughly 47% before overround, Levante at 4.0 implies about 25%, and the draw at 3.3 sits around 30%. The market's pricing Espanyol as moderate favourites, and the recent form backs that lean. They closed last season with a 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad at home, a 2-1 away win at Osasuna, and a 2-0 home victory over Athletic Club. That's two wins in their last three, both showing they can control games at the RCDE Stadium. Levante, meanwhile, finished with three wins in their last five, but two of those were at home, and their away record remains patchy: a 5-1 hammering at Villarreal sits alongside a 3-2 win at Celta. They can score on the road, but they leak goals doing it.
The question is whether 2.11 on Espanyol is paying you enough for a Round 1 fixture with no current-season form to lean on. My read is it's close to fair, maybe slightly short, but not wildly mispriced. Espanyol's home record from the back end of last season gives them a genuine edge here, and Levante's defensive fragility away from home is a real pattern. The market's priced this as a home win with goals likely, and I don't see much to argue against that. If I'm staking anything, I'm backing Espanyol to win, but I'm also looking at both teams to score and over 2.5 goals given how open Levante's away fixtures tend to be and how Espanyol showed late-season attacking intent at home.
Espanyol to take all three points at home in a tight opener, with goals on both sides likely given recent form and La Liga's first-round unpredictability.

Espanyol
2 : 1
Levante




What Is Your Prediction?


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Goals Scored
0.0
Goals Conceded
0.0
Goals difference
0
Avg. goals per match
0.0
FT, 23 May 2026
1
1
FT, 17 May 2026
1
2
FT, 13 May 2026
2
0
FT, 9 May 2026
2
1
FT, 3 May 2026
0
2







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Espanyol at 2.11 implies a 47% chance before margin, which feels consistent with their home form advantage and Levante's defensive issues on the road, though Round 1 uncertainty keeps this from being a slam-dunk short price.
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The draw at 3.3 is priced generously enough to reflect genuine Round 1 variance, but Espanyol's recent home wins and Levante's tendency to concede make it less appealing than the home-win or goal-based angles.
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Both teams to score at 1.95 and over 2.5 goals at 2.24 are consistent with Levante's high-scoring away fixtures and Espanyol's attacking home performances, suggesting the market expects goals even if it leans toward a home win.