Senegal vs Iraq Betting Tips

Prediction

World Cup group-stage football at BMO Field in Toronto, and while both Senegal and Iraq sit on zero points after two defeats apiece, the market still paints this as a mismatch. Senegal are priced at 1.46, Iraq out at 13.75, and the confirmed lineups show both sides making minor rotations without fundamentally altering their approach. The draw price has drifted out to 6.75, suggesting the market sees even less chance of Iraq salvaging a point than when this prediction was first published. I'm sticking with Senegal to win, though the question remains whether they can convert that dominance into a clean-sheet victory. Keep reading to see where the value sits.

I'll start where the original analysis left off: Senegal should win this, and they should win it comfortably. The 1.46 price still reflects a significant quality gap, even though both sides have lost their opening two matches. Iraq's form has been particularly poor-conceding seven goals across defeats to Norway (4-1) and France (3-0) while managing just a single goal in reply. Senegal have also struggled, losing 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway, but their attacking output suggests they've at least been competitive in those matches. The market sees that difference clearly, with the away win now drifting all the way out to 13.75 from the original 7.6. That's a dramatic shift, and it tells you the bookmakers believe Iraq have shown nothing in their first two games to suggest they can trouble Senegal here.

The confirmed lineups show Senegal fielding a strong side, with Sadio Mané, Ismaïla Sarr, and Idrissa Gueye all starting. Iraq have named Ali Al-Hamadi up front, supported by Zidane Iqbal and Ibrahim Bayesh in midfield, but the defensive frailties they've shown so far don't inspire confidence against a Senegal attack that should have the quality to exploit space. The draw price has also drifted from 4.42 to 6.75, which is another signal that the market expects Senegal to assert control and avoid any nervous scramble for a point.

The goal-line market is where things get interesting. Over 2.5 has shortened slightly from 1.92 to 1.52, while under 2.5 has drifted from 1.95 to 2.44. That movement suggests the market now expects Senegal to be more aggressive and Iraq to offer even less resistance than originally anticipated. The BTTS 'No' line has drifted marginally from 1.7 to 1.8, still backing a clean sheet but with slightly less conviction. I think 2-0 remains the most logical outcome-Senegal dominate possession, create multiple chances, and Iraq struggle to fashion anything meaningful going forward. The one caveat is that tournament football can still produce odd moments, and if Iraq manage to grab an early goal, the entire dynamic shifts. But the price movement suggests the market doesn't believe that's likely, and neither do I.

Senegal to win comfortably at BMO Field, with Iraq lacking the quality to trouble them across ninety minutes.

Senegal

2 : 0

Iraq

Senegal to win

1.46

Both teams to score: No

1.80

Under 2.5 Goals

2.44