

Serie A
•Round 4

Venezia
14:45
11th Sept 2026

Fiorentina
Draw


Author
Fact checker Janne Kouva
Neither side has scored in two league matches, and the evenly priced 1X2 market supports a cautious draw lean.
Here's the thing: Venezia and Fiorentina arrive at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo with zero points and zero league goals after two rounds. Venezia have conceded four, Fiorentina seven, so neither defence gets a free pass either. Still, with the 1X2 market split almost evenly, my match prediction is a low-scoring draw. There's more to unpack than the table suggests below.
This is a difficult one to get overly confident about, because the early evidence points in two directions at once. Venezia are 19th after two defeats, having lost 2-0 at home to Lecce and 2-0 away to AC Milan. Fiorentina sit directly below them in 20th, also on two losses, after a 4-0 defeat at Roma and a 3-0 home loss to Frosinone. The shared theme is obvious: neither team has found a goal yet. For me, that makes a measured game the starting point rather than an automatic expectation of a shootout.
The catch is that Fiorentina's two latest defeats have brought seven goals conceded, while Venezia have shipped four, so either side is capable of making this uncomfortable for itself. Fiorentina's broader five-match sequence does contain a win at Juventus and draws with Atalanta and Genoa, which gives their recent record a little more substance than the opening two results alone. But I can't stretch that into a strong away-win case when the current league start has been so blunt.
The prices tell you this is close: Venezia and Fiorentina are both available at 3.10, while the draw is 3.38. I'm happy to oppose the urge to force a winner from that setup. A 0-0 draw is my correct-score lean, with BTTS No and Under 2.5 Goals the more natural supporting angles. It's a low-confidence 1X2 call, but the goal-based case is clearer.
a low-scoring draw looks the most plausible outcome between two sides still searching for their first league points.

Venezia
0 : 0
Fiorentina




This module compares match predictions from leading AI models using the same advanced prompt. Each model analyzes team form, statistics, injuries, head-to-head records, and other key factors before generating a prediction and scoreline. The comparison highlights where models agree or differ.


What Is Your Prediction?


Loading…
Goals Scored
0.0
Goals Conceded
2.0
Goals difference
-4
Avg. goals per match
2.0
FT, 28 Aug 2026
2
0
FT, 23 Aug 2026
0
2







👉
Venezia and Fiorentina are both priced at 3.10, equivalent to identical raw implied probabilities of roughly 32.3%.
👉
The draw at 3.38 carries a raw implied probability of about 29.6%, keeping the 1X2 market tightly balanced.
👉
Under 2.5 Goals is available at 1.92 versus 5.50 for Over 2.5, making the supplied goal-line prices strongly tilted towards a restrained total.